From Guru of Patras
27/10/2011 (21:24)
Barcelona – Prokom
Barcelona – Olimpija 86-64
Prokom – Galatasaray 72-76
Another game that depends on the mood of Barcelona as
to what the score difference we’ll be. Barcelona passed easily from Olimpija Ljubljana and having rhythm they won (91-72) and a strong
game against Bilbao
in Spain
on Sunday with 27 p. of Navarro. But nevertheless there still seem to be far
from full form, and far from how they want to play especially in duration. They
are accustomed to open the game wide open especially at home, however,
depending on the mood. Obviously they are overflowing with talent as a team.
* The Polish Prokom vindicated us that they are a
mediocre team this year and will have a difficult task this year as they don’t
have a good roster. However they almost made an epic overthrow in Galata as they went up by 37-32, then suffered
a 2-17 run to fall far behind (39-49, 52-70) and -18 and looked beaten only to make
an incredible total return, to close it to 71-72 and missed at the last shot!
Generally, however they have a mediocre roster and lost in the VTB
league at home to Spartak St Petersburg with 67-77. Their Americans in the
roster are not anything specialand they are far from the days they were
reaching the final 8.
* Classic game that it we’ll go where Barcelona wants.
Reasonable is the handicap at 21points. The score will probably be 90-65,
somewhere. By this logic the over of 149 points has luck. Provided they Barca doesn’t
slow down as they did last year in such games as they went in a very low tempo.
So we might have to keep an eye on that.
Nancy – Bilbao
Nancy –
Cantu 69-80
Bilbao – Olympiakos 76-61
This is an interesting, open
game and important for both teams to qualify even though it’s still early. Nancy
lost to Cantu but fought hard, since
they were ahead 15-21 and 49-50 but then suffered a 2-12 run (61-52) and failed
to return. In France they won easily 85-64 against Nanterre
and still are undefeated. Generally a good team but French team whatever that
means. They are inconsistent and good in home court. Batum can not make a difference alone and usually scores around
12-15p! It has no quality on the bench especially if he wants to qualify at
this level.
* Bilbao won easily Olympiakos in their debut in the Euroleague, having consistency
and excellent performance. The team with the Greek community with coach
Katsikaris, and Vassiliadis, Mavroidis and
Kakiouzis are showing good signs. Hervelle
returns who is unprepared, however, Mavroidis is doubtful, however, traveled
with the team. Blums has a problem
and was left out and thus Vassiliadis will
have much work.
In Spain they lost from Barcelona in Bilbao 91-72 showing signs of fatigue.
A team
that plays well and away and naturally wants to qualify and this game is key
game because if they win them they’ll leave the French behind. Bilbao has more quality as a team and wants
to contain with their forwards (Mumbru,
Grimau) the scoring of Batum
and thereafter thy will be the favorites. They haveto have good numbers in offense.
* Weird match as it is a
critical and unpredictable one. At 1.75 for Bilbao and falling it makes sense but beware
that this team is also inexperienced at this level and if Vassiliadis doesn’t score they’ll probably have problems
offensively. It looks as a thriller but Bilbao
is fuller and with better frontline. They have the edge and therefore the odds
are good and reasonable. But it is tricky game and wants lots of attention.
Olympiakos – Fener.Ulker
Olympiakos – Bilbao
61-76
Fener.Ulker – Caja
Laboral 66-69
This is a big game at Peace and
Friendship Stadium for
many reasons. Because Fener last year won easily in Athens but in the second round they lost by 20
at their home arena and were eliminated! First game this year for Olympiakos in
front of his home crowd, but does not expect more than 5.000 people since there a
bit of controversy.
Olympiakos lost
easily in Bilbao having absences but also showing he
wants a more work to face opponents having great weaknesses in the squad.
They played against PAOK for the Greek A1 on Monday were they won easily
65-52 with Spanoulis looking a lot better.
Lucas returns and also Keseli but Pelekanos is out. Needs work, they want to play pressing
defense and run.
* Fener… is just Fener.Ulker…So they did loose in their home from Caja and showed totally unprepared. In
a game where they led by 20-12 and 58-57 but lost at the end. A few things from
the NBAer Sefolosha. Spahija is not convincing at the bench
and can not make good management of his team’s roster. Tomas is out. The team has an excellent roster and the goal is the
F-4 but no team chemistry yet and key players like Bogdanovic and Preldzic are
essentially without roles and responsibilities.
Very bad impression in general and especially in zone defense as they had no plan
and everyone did what he wanted, but clearly has much room for improvement and
knows how to win away. Sefolosha is
not a threat in 2-3 positions and with Onan
as first scorer you not don’t go
anywhere! They won 81-77 against Antalya.
* Very strange game.
Olympiakos is trying to get into good form and relies on defense. They want to
press and run and in offense to play 5 vs 5. They fro the good shot from three
point range but don’t have it yet. They defeated the Turks in a friendly game
in early October but that means nothing. Fener
will want to wear out the tall man of Olympiakos and might play
zone. They have talent offensively but against the zone they are awful.
They will be more prepared and they have much more quality team. It’s really a strange game. It will be
a stressful and tough game. Under is falling which we pick at 148-150 points as
reasonably the game will be a thriller to 70-72 points. You may want to pick
Fener with +4 or even +3.
Real-Armani Milano
Real – Charleroi
100-76
Armani MI – Maccabi 89-82
The game of the week with two
teams with a great name and history. Real
passed like the wind in Belgium against Charleroi and has a deep, talented and youthful team
with excellent performance in defense and Rudi
looking good. Easy win 81-67 versus Obradoiro in Spain. Lasso quietly won the
players and everyone is happy. The stadium will be packed and even with Obradoiro they had 8.500!
They lost Velickovic for 1.5
month, but got the ferocious Ibaka who
was at the Eurobasket with the Spanish national team and is very good at
reboundinghe will be at the bench probably today. Of course as the lockout stands.
* Milan has been erratic at their home court until
now. However came successfully in this difficult group of the Euroleague and had a big game against Maccabi, although unprepared even after
having lost to Pesaro in Italy, in a game
with only 4 points in the third quarter! With Maccabi they transformed and they are an excellent team roster and
a good coach Skariolo. They want
time to find their rhythm.
With Maccabi started well (14-7) suffered a 0-14 (14-21) and built a lead
(59-50 and 67-54). And having won easily and having more rebounds. Won easily
79-64 in
Italy
vs Virtus Bologna.
* Real is the favorite. However, they have ups and downs during
the game and wants attention. But they have a strong frontline and may trouble Milano which after Bourousis has problems in the center position. Milano will play reasonably much zone and they run the fast break
and score with the class of its players, they will have great chance to win. The game is not for 1.30 in all cases. With
7.5 points we rather prefer Maccabi T-A. The 154 points look odd and the game
will go at a very high rate and more than 80 points each, or will we have a lot
of stress and zone and can easily be under around 75 points. Most likely the second will happen.
Maccabi – Partizan
Maccabi-Milano
82-89
Partizan-Efes
Pilsen 73-84
This is a game where the difference will be the issue. Maccabi began last year with a heavy defeat on Caja Murcia and then went 9/9! Therefore we are not concerned about
the defeat in Milan that was widely and up and down game and after a 14-0 they went
to 14-21, but then stuck with just 3/14 three pointers, and finally lost easily
(59-50 and 67-54). They have a problem in shooting from three point range, and
therefore they agreed to sign with Langford of Khimki to help them. Farmar from
the NBA still has not found his pace at the point guard and Papaloukas gives them many solutions.
Team roster and with good chemistry they will have excellent future in the
League. In the Adriatic League they defeated 84-60 in the Siroki.
* Partizan side could not resist Efes
and with a 2-15 run in the third period where they scored only 6p lost easily
and logically. Besides, they are in a transitional season and haven’t the
talent of other times. Matcvan acquired
from Maccabi on a loan (!) will help
and had already 13p with Efes. And
with Pekovic who plays well lately
they are a great duo in frontline. But they haven’t the depth of other years.
Team with much experience, however, which traditionally produces many upsets.
In the Adriatic League they defeated Krka 68-63. Their philosophy always starts
from defense.
* Maccabi is of course the favorite
for a comfortable victory. With the
handicap at 14 points being marginal. Logic says they will find pace and
run. Partizan will go in slow tempo
with zone defense and in offense they will feed Peko and Matcvan. If they have a good day they might get into the
game, otherwise the match will be open and might go up to 20-25 points. So if Partizan can control the pace we should
be careful. The total points at 155 points are high, but the rhythm can open. More
to bet on the 1.
Probable Predictions
Wins —-
Handicap for Fener +4, Milan,
7.5, Maccabi -14 (all in no particular order)
Under for Olympic 148
What’s on
Wins —-
Handicap Fener
+4, -14
Unders Maccabi Olympic 148-150 and then Siena 150
Our predictions
Wins—-
Handicap Fener +4, -14
Unders Maccabi Olympic 148-150