From Guru of Patras
26/10/2011 (10:58)

CSKA – Bamberg

·    CSKA – Zalgiris 87-74
·    Bamberg – KK Zagreb 96-65

A game that will certainly be easy for the great “bear”! CSKA made an imposing and stately appearance against Zalgiris Kaunas in the opening day with Kirilenko at the power forward position in a very tall line up (with Siskauskas at “2”). They played excellent offense (with Kirilenko with 17 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists) and went strolling showing that it’s the favorite for the title (along with Barcelona). CSKA has a good pace with Kazlaouskas and Sfairopoulos doing a very good job. Teodosic seems very mature as a playmaker and had 8 assists and was nearly perfect in the offensive end of the floor.

in Thursday’s game with CEZ Nymburk for the VTB League (80-69) and rested Teodosic and Kirilenko and then beat Lokomotiv 77-64 resting a lot of players with a nice rotation. They are in excellent condition.

* On the other, Bamberg is in terrible shape. Having ambitions this year and trashing Zagreb  in the opening night they looked stunning. Certainly they are not expecting to go very high, but want to qualify in the second phase. And of course, they don’t expect something special from this game! In Germany they hammered Braunschweig 95-57 on Sunday. They have excellent team chemistry and improved defense, better ofense this year and depth in rotation now. No stress whatsoever for this game.

* Here both teams are in excellent shape but a huge difference in capacity and goals. CSKA reasonably will win easily, but beware that Bamberg is not a bad team, and as a German team they are playing until the end even to cut the margin of points in such games. At 14 points handicap and rising we pick CSKA. Above that no as CSKA may play conservative to rest players. Logic says that Bamberg we’ll score around 65 points and thus over with 151. our choice is not to bet on it.
KK Zagreb – Panathinaikos

·    KK Zagreb – Bamberg 65-96
·    Panathinaikos – Malaga 98-77

It looks an easy game for Panathinaikos at his friendly KK in the sense that they have good relations and the Greens await for Saric the new great talent of Croatian basketball to acquire him. Panathinaikos is the champion and KK Zagreb the newcomer in the Euroleague. Panathinaikos had an easy win with Malaga surprising even Obradovic who insisted that his team has the worst preparation and that they are not ready! Batiste is still trying to get into good shape. On Sunday they played conservatively to win Aris (84-72) in the Olympic Stadium. They just have to be serious in this game.
* On the other hand, the Croats play in Zagreb Arenas and it looks like a celebration game as this is the first in Euroleague! But they started badly and changed their coach after a disappointment performance in Germany with Bamberg. Their American players are mediocre, Ozbolt is out of shape, bad defense, and with problems in scoring. They showed signs of improvement in the Adriatic league as they lost in overtime to Olimpia 91-90. But they are  not convincing at all…
* Highlight of the evening will be the… meeting of Ozbolt – Batiste from last game of Olimpija and Panathinaikos with the American kicking on the head his opponent in an incident that was close to killing him!

if Panathinaikos is serious they we’ll  win easily. There is no comparison with these two teams. PAO is very deep team and with Aris they saved energy. They will put lots of pressure in the perimeter of KK to lead them in many mistakes. In the perimeter of KK plays his old player “Mula”. The game should be a win for Panathinaikos with a handicap of 11-12 points, unless PAO slows down at the end. However, there are for an away game they are not a small difference. The under / over is marginal since the game might open up in pace as was done in Bamberg. But KK hardly scores 60-65 points.

Eph Pilsen – Charleroi

·    Eph Pilsen – PARTIZAN 84-73
·    Charleroi – Real 76-100

This looks like an easy game for Efes Pilsen, who, at the opening night proved us right as they strolled easily from Belgrade in the hot arena of Partizan with excellent performance. Efes has great depth bench, and excellent roster and coach Saritsa maybe inexperienced but he is serious and keeps the team in order. In Belgrade with a 17-2 (!) at the start of the third periodthey allowed only a total of 6p (!). They had no problem since they have great depth in their bench and balance in the squad. They are expecting 12000 fans and in their league won easily 80-65 in Aliaga.

* On the other hand, Charleroi began with an expected defeat against Real Madrid but looked bad and did not play defense which is their only weapon along with their homogeneity and team chemistry. He acquired the forward Oveneke but he is not anything special. There is good condition however and Sunday they suffered a shocking defeat in the Belgian league with 68-76 from Aalstar! It has no depth in their bench this year and generally seems to have a bad time because they started with qualifying games and had to be ready to soon.

* The two teams have no comparison. Efes is in a good shape, Saritsa does a nice and reasonable rotation and the game will be easy. At 15 points the handicap is a matter of attitude from the part of Efes to cover it and clearly. They have the depth and being good psychologically. Marginal is the under/over as the game should be close to 80-85 with 65.

Caja Laboral – Cantu

·    Caja Laboral – FENER 69-66
·    Cantu – Nancy 80-69

This game needs attention. Caja Laboral continues to be a strange and erratic team has high aspirations, but it’s a matter of day performance if they win or loose. After the defeat in Spain in Zaragoza with 20 points they won in  Fener with good defense (zone) and three-pointer from Teletovits in offense.

On Sunday they lost at home (!) from Valencia 72-82 with a tragic performance even though they started with a 10 point lead. Generally they are a crazy team with their three-pointers being the key offensively and zone on defense. Serafin is not at his best with Ivanovic! They play ata home and expecting 8500 fans and they want to finish first in their group.
* The Italian team Cantu returned in Euroleague. However struggled against Nancy but with a 12-2 run they made it (61-52) and won because of their defense and home court advantage. In Italy on Sunday they won 80-76 in Venezia but struggled. Team with great defense, awesome chemistry as they say in Italy is the miniature of Siena. They will go with a little stress in Vitoria and they will gight with their defense. We are concerned however, with their the fatigue, but they are in shape.

* Sneaky game. Cantu will go to steal the match with their defense. You have to play good perimeter defense to have any chance of wining. They don’t have the quality and depth of stealing these games unless opponents are in bad day. Caja isn’t a deep team either so Cantu has a chance. Even if they are back with 10-15 points they will fight … With the handicap of 9.5 points we will go to pick Cantu. Marginal the under in 147. But possible..

******* Games of 1.05 and 1.10 odds ARE NOT WORTH BETTING. Also may I remind you that singles with odds of 1.70 and above, and handicap and under / over we mainly play them in  livebetting

****** A strange day today, on the disposal of the big teams especially if the handicaps keep rising.
Probable picks

Wins —–
Handicap -14 CSKA, Efes -15, -11, Cantu +9
Anders overs —-

Handicap -14 CSKA, Efes -15, PAO -11 (everything possible in 2-3 without much risk)