From Guru of Patras
23/11/2011 (14:37)

Olympiakos – Bilbao

Olympiakos (last results)
· Bilbao 61-76
· Fener 81-74
· Caja Laboral 79-81
· Cantu 63-64
· Nancy 91-78

Bilbao (last results)
· Olympiakos 76-61
· Nancy 73-87
· Cantu 69-78
· Fener 70-73
· Caja Laboral 89-84

Very important game for qualification as this group is very open! Olympiakos lost to 76-61 in Bilbao, but now they even think to cover the -15. Overall, however, they have good psychology after a comfortable victory against Nancy and the relatively good performance in the derby against Panathinaikos were they lost easily but kept the difference close (74-70) fighting defensively but losing easily with 13 points in the 37′.

They are expecting a large crowd, as it is a crucial game and since they don’t have a win away they need to win at home. At home, however, even this year with a mediocre roster they find the way to win. Although has problems in offense and relies on defense, finds solutions by playing with courage and with Spanoulis leadership. However the three-pointer is a serious problem especially in zones. But inside shooting is much better. They are still looking for players.

** On the other hand there is Greek interest also since in Bilbao the coach is Katsikaris and Vassiliadis and Mavroidis play there. Bilbao that except for the win in Caja Murcia don’t look good recently and lost in Spain to Seville 67-75 with a 14-26 run at the end having a large gap in their performance. A team with a high budget, newcomer in the League but this does not say anything about their participation. But even though they have a good roster has not found yet balance and sometimes they are good in defense, sometimes in offense this year.

Last year they relied on defense and tight rotation this year they changed a lot and play more aggressively, but have a problem in rotation with the bigger roster. Jackson is not very convincing in the playmaker position and if Vassiliadis doesn’t score, they have problems offensively. Strange team, and if they hadn’t win Caja they would have much grumbling and Katsikaris position might be threaten.

If they win they even see good placement in the pool. And of course it is possible for them to qualify since they won against Caja with super Vassiliadis (21points), and having a good start (with 0-11 and 17-25) and came back from 78-73 at the 36 ‘!

** Olympiakos has a narrow lead, but it’s a difficult game. The odds at 1.25 to 1.30 are low for the victory and because we expect a close game we can pick Bilbao at +7 unless they can’t handle the pressure by Olympiakos and the find themselves loosing 8-10p and try then to keep the 16 point advantage from the first game. However it’s a strange game as each game of Olympiakos and we prefer the double at +7.

CSKA – Zalgiris

CSKA (last results)
· Zalgiris 87-74
· Bamberg 94-74
· KK Zagreb CO 89-47
· Panathinaikos 78-76 (overtime)
· Malaga 77-66
Zalgiris (last results)
· CSKA 74-87
· Malaga 78-85 (Fri.)
· Panathinaikos 75-92
· Bamberg 81-70
· KK Zagreb CO 78-80

This is an easy game for CSKA we care about it only for betting. CSKA may have the most complete roster in Europe and is the favorite, but they are still looking again in the NBA fro an addition (!). But still not playing excellent basketball and games such as this all the big teams sees them as a good workout. Against Malaga they played 10 minutes of good basketball, got the difference (62-41) and then … slowed down and the game suddenly was a derby  72-66!

Shock from the injury of Kirilenko (88-73 with Krasnie Krilya in VTB League) will miss 20 days and it’s an opportunity to see how it plays without its top player. However, it has tremendous depth, but will probably go into a more balanced line up with two guards (next to Teodosic who had some injury problems but plays will start Shved and Gordon and Siskauskas at the small forward) and thus Kazlaouskas will see some other things also.

** Zalgiris coach changed but not team performance. And the situation around the team is not good; Collins is out since he had probably drunk more than he supposed to when he went to the airport! All of that following the defeat in Zagreb and qualifying is much more difficult. In a game that started soft and found themselves loosing 40-25! They evened the game and went on a 16-0 run and went ahead by 54-61 but the match was anyone’s, a thriller and lost in the last possession. Moaning again fro the eccentric President, and Popovic yielded at his teammates …

Bad situation became even heavier from the crash in VTB League 79-52 in Kazan from Unics on Sunday. All that shows that the situation is out of control while in the center position they are having problems since behind Javtokas there is essentially only Rakovic coming from the “4” position though.

** Easy win for CSKA although it has not hurt the squad Zalgiris. But we have problems Zalgiris and the absence of Kirilenko and placing the issue as to Malaga. With 15p to ace, however, as CSKA is overflowing, provided you do not get bored at the end and slow down again.

Anadolu Efes – Partizan

Anadolu Efes (last results)
· Partizan 84-73
· Charleroi 79-80
· Armani MI 62-54
· Maccabi 72-79
· Real 84-104

Partizan (last results)
· Efes Pilsen 73-84
· Maccabi 66-70
· Charleroi 91-81
· Real 80-79
· Armani MI 69-65

Very interesting game in a strange and tricky group where there is no easy match. Efes is in crisis and they want to sign Barea from the NBA! It is in crisis and the chair is creaking for coach Sarica following the poor performance in Madrid with Real. Of course not loosing by large margins (85-76 in 36 ‘) and the score opened at the end since they quit the game. The bell rang by the administration as they will not tolerate a disqualification. We are  talking about a team with an excellent roster but no chemistry and balance.

Very large gaps in their performance, sometimes they play offense with three-pointers of Vujiasic, other times paly good defense as they did in the win away in Milano! But it is in the qualifying race even though they haven’t yet win a game at home andafter they defeated in Belgrade if they win now they put the Serbs under them. Won at home 98-64 against Hacettepe Univ. In Turkey and is 6-0.

*** Partizan is what we call classical Partizan! Have nine lives as a cat! Despite the mediocre roster this year sees qualifying even if they are in a very difficult group! Despite the 2/13 shots by Law they took an incredible win away in Milano with excellent defense and the 40-26 rebounds for them! In a game with crazy fluctuations as they were loosing 31-19 (halftime) and 62-47 in the 35th minute and had an incredible 1-20 run (!) made it 63-67 a got the win! Hey have a series of good results in Turkey.

Passionate and sly team with twin towers Pekovic – Macvan and Law at the point and the others as role players. Shock in the Adriatic League they were defeated 72-62 by Zlatorog playing with the second unit as they were tired. They go without any stress in Turkey.

*** Efes has a fuller roster and wins logically and reasonably are the favorites. But they are not convincing and have a bad atmosphere around the team. Partizan is tricky and without any stress even more dangerous. However, Efes has big bodies to guard Pekovic and Macvan. Wants to hit 1-2 good shots and unlock the defense of the Serbs to win clearly and easy. A game that can be won easily by the home team but can also become a thriller! Low the 1.25 but normally passes. Strange are the 8 points and the under at 149 while its possible.

Siena – Unics Kazan

Siena (last results)
· Unics Kazan 79-71
· Olimpija 79-57 L
· Galatasaray 103-77
· Barcelona 75-92
· Prokom 84-73

Unics Kazan (last results)

· Siena 71-79
· Galatasaray 68-64
· Barcelona 65-93
· Prokom 72-68
· Olimpija 81-51 L

Interesting game bun not a spectacular one! As Siena in Kazan had taken a big win with by turning the game around from -10 and won easily in the end, and playing good basketball, but then started again having mediocre performances in the next games. And general Siena is not all that well. It comes from average games and there is concern after the defeats and the bad performance with Barcelona, ​​Milano and despite the victory by Prokom were they had a 33-20 in the third period but did not look good having allowed 13 threes!

Something that angered Pianigiani since the defense is their hallmark and especially at home where they play very tough. And in Italy do not play well. With a 24-14 run they defeated Varese at the end 79-74 in Italy having a bad day again with big problems in 3-4 positions. They are looking to sign a player, because Stonerook isn’t playing well and so does Rakosevic. They want to clinch the second spot in the group and they can seal it with a simple victory.

** Unics Kazan has a predictable course and goes without anxiety for the win. A team that relies on defense and three-pointer shots, but doesn’t play well in offense and their tall men are not threatening. With 11 threes and 42-17 in the second half (!) they crashed Olimpia L. But our concern is the gaps they have, especially now that they will face a tough defense. In good shape, however, and in the VTB League they won 79-52 against Zalgiris at home.

** Hard game. Low but reasonably are the odds of 1.15. However, it has no value. Siena either will make an imposing performance with a win by 20 points difference, since Unics has no problem even if they lose, or we’ll have a thriller. It’s an unpredictable game. With the 147p we do not tangle as Kazan might not force the issue and open up the pace.

What we pick

We won money yesterday by avoiding victories and also pitfalls like Le Mans. And loaded in the errors mainly of Aris and Bayern and won easy cash. With 4/4 in handicap and with 3/3 in the unders (essentially) as the last one left was Benetton passing through the first two not only made cover but sure profit in live especially with the 60p half time did a certain profit with odds of 1.25! Euroleague scares me after… the upsets of last week with Zalgiris, PAO and Milano and in plain wins and at 1.20 have no meaning.

** So what we play? 1.10 Siena? Goodbye. Olympiakos 1.25 to a wicked game? It should be about 1.45. Efes at 1.25? Low with the moan by the Turks and I believe it today. And what else is left? CSKA at 1.05. OK? What do we play? Double Olympiakos – Efes were the whole world will drop. I’ll be careful. In the handicap does we don’t mess around with Siena and Efes, especially today nothing in the under/over. If CSKA doesn’t feel to make the -15 with Zalgiris has grumbling but without Collins can play better but has no poor frontline. Bilbao is a good bet on 2 and the win of Efes and that’s it. But do not play anything else.

** SO JUST REST and play some combinations of the victory of Efes (not alone) and Bilbao at +7.