From Guru of Patras
22/12/2011 (16:57)
Anadolu Efes – Real Madrid
This is a game without any importance as Efes cannot move
from third position, and Real has secured first.
** Anadolu Efes secured qualification, but there is always a
lot of talk and not unjustly after having an expensive roster, but no one plays
according to his ability and the team hasn’t left good impressions even though
got qualification. However compared to other years where they didn’t qualify
maybe this is a success! Do not forget that they want to go to the Final Four
as they host it but playing basketball like that no way. Has enormous gaps in
their performance and the coach at the bench does not feel very comfortable. They
were crashed in Tel Aviv after 36-31 at halftime, as they collapsed! Poor performance
also in Turkey won 106-102 in
overtime against the weak Antalya. Perhaps with no anxiety now they will play
better.
** Real beat easily Partizan and secured the first position
and is satisfied but looking at many things. Basically the team wants time to
find again chemistry after the departure of NBAers. Also, Laso is still
inexperienced at this level on the bench and wants time if Real wants to claim
the title. They didn’t have any problem in Spain with the Manresa (83-61).
** As we said this is a game without any importance. Real is
a better team but with gaps in performance like Efes, which plays at home and
probably may play better without any stress today. Generally this is a No Bet
game.
Nancy – Olympiakos
Nancy is out of the competition and Olympiakos secured
qualification but wants to win as they may emerge from first to fourth!
** Nancy is we said is out and experienced humiliation in
Spain with Caja Laboral an incredible crash while they were loosing even 71-30 in 30 minutes! Following
the departure of Batum for the NBA and fatigue, not having much depth, the team
suffered and this happened also in France, which had problems with the mediocre
Orthez (73-66 win). Generally they want a good performance today for the fans alone.
It may not have deep roster, but be careful, however, while they are always playing
with enthusiasm.
* Olympiakos won easily playing excellent defense against Cantu
and secured qualification. Now he wants a victory for good placing as he can
come out first (if Cantu looses they only loose from Fener on a tie) and fourth
in this group of fire. Away they don’t have a victory but there is his chance.
Besides, if you do not win at Nancy where and when you win? They face a problem
at the center with the absence of Papadopoulos and have a problem when facing
zones. The injury of Spanoulis made matters worse. Without him in the court not
only loses the 20p he contributes, but has no guidance and panic. And they have
huge dead minutes in their games. They won easily vs Ikaros in Greece on the
road with 105-57.
** The game has become mess. Olympiakos will try to win with
their tough defense but without Spanoulis just does not pass easily from France
as Nancy have no incentive but they will play with enthusiasm for the fans and the
team. So logically goes up the win of Olympiakos. The odds of 1.30 makes no sense
because the game is now tricky and the absence of Spanoulis is greater than
that of Batum. Clearly Olympiakos has a better team is more full and tough and
experienced and will probably get the game, but it’s not for 1.30. We pick the
home team (1) with 6-7 points. And we go now with the under with 151 since Olympiakos
will play tough defensive basketball!
Partizan – Armani MI
* Partizan will qualify with victory or defeat by 3 points. Milano
to qualify needs to win with 4 points or more.
** Final qualifying game in a very difficult group! Partizan
started as underdogs but with good course hugged the qualification and for good
reason. The loss of Pekovic returning to the NBA though and the defeat at Charleroi,
put qualification to danger, but still they hold their fate in their hands and Hala
Paionir is the hardest place to play in Europe. Certainly without Pekovic loses
30-40% of its strength and 15 points. He plays with tremendous courage, passion
and defense but traditionally has a problem offensively. They lost to Cedevita
75-57 in
the Adriatic League but try to rest players. Transformed in home games but they
will have anxiety. They can qualify even if they loose up to 3 points after they
had won by 4 in
Milan with tremendous upset coming back from -20.
* The Italian team has an expensive roster but is at risk of
exclusion and has very bad team chemistry and large dead spaces, and at many games
played with lack of passion and management rang the bell! Nevertheless, hopes
to qualify and go for the win by 4 points as they have the experience and
knowing that they are a better roster. They won easily in Charleroi and at home
with Montegranaro (88-72). Better roster but must play with their hart in a difficult
arena. Reasonably complete, added Gentile from Benetton but its difficult to
play today.
** Awesome game and bodies will fall. Milano has a much
better roster, but much worse basketball team and budget and names don’t secure
wins. With the courage of the Serbs how they will cope? Small lead for Armani
MI but we are not very enthusiastic. As Partizan Belgrade is a very hard team
to beat. The game is more towards the under with 146 points but we might have a
lot of free throws at the end of the game due to special situations if the game
is close.
Charleroi – Maccabi Tel Aviv
This game has no significance as Charleroi was eliminated
and Maccabi is the second place.
** Charleroi has no hope to qualify but left very good
impressions and gained experiences. Indeed it is commonly accepted that if they
were in another group they would claim qualification. He wants a win for prestige
with good performance. Scorer Mullet returns as without him lost easily in
Milan. In Belgium they won the derby 76-72 in the Dexia Mons. Play very well at home.
** Maccabi tries to recover and play good basketball. It is
one of the favorites this year but still not convincing. With Efes played excellent
basketball in the second half but at the first half were just 36-31. Easy win
in the Adriatic League (at home 94-56 Helios), but has shown signs of fatigue
while playing in the third League (in the league in Israel!). Still looking for
the anti-Farmar and Papaloukas wanted to leave after not playing much! Has a
problem today with Eliyahu in the 4 position who is out and generally wants
attention. Not the best team chemistry of course but a very good team. They are
playing for the prestige today.
** Tricky game as indifferent Maccabi has absences and has no
duration in their performance and Charleroi with courage in their good day can
do the damage. The 1.30 is worthless, and go with (1) maybe at 6 points but
not… with pleasure as Maccabi can win by 20p!
Cantu – Fener.Ulker
Cantu has secured qualification and wants a victory for good
placing. Fener hasn’t clinched a spot and depending on the results can go from
first to fifth and therefore be eliminated!
This is a game of most importance in a crazy group! Bodies
will fall on this one! Cantu has secured qualification and therefore tired in Piece
and Friendship they lost easily, as they don’t have a deep bench. Now they want
good placing in the group and winning because if they loose they rather go in fourth
place. Very strong at home however, and playing tough defense as it is miniature
of Siena. But they have a big problem offensively. In Italy they lost on the
road 69-65 from Casale.
** Fener has an expensive team roster, complete and Tomas returned,
but is unprepared yet, but with bad team chemistry and balance and
mismanagement by Spahija. Therefore did not start well, and then seemed to clinch
even the first place but the very bad performance and defeat from Bilbao made
matters difficult. While having the winning tie with Olympiakos, may even get
the first place. They won 80-63 against Olin Edirne in Turkey.
** Great game. Fener is fuller but it does not play well and
have good roles in offense and Cantu with the tough defense will give them
trouble and they will have also anxiety. But it has the weight, it can get some
whistles from the referees and has great depth. Cantu is tired and the small
rotation might have problems offensively. It would be difficult for them to
score 70p. We go with the victory of Fener and with under at 144-145 points,
unless we have lots of free throws at the end.
Bilbao – Caja Laboral
The classic Basque derby as Bilbao is hoping to qualify only
with a victory.
** This is a do or die game in this crazy group. Neither team
has ensured as there are infinite combinations and ties. The only certainty is
that if Bilbao is defeated they are eliminated. If they win, (having won in the
Caja also), they will wait for the other results and the key victory of Cantu (from
which has two defeats). Although found in adifficult spot, passed easily from Turkey
with Fener (33-52) having a long lead time and showing duration for the first
time perhaps. Being a good team, but unstable and with lots of gaps in their
performance. Also they play very well at home. They had off in Spain.
** Caja Laboral crashed Nancy (71-30 in 30 minutes) hitting 15 threes.
But is in trouble now, although originally started well and were the favorites for
the first place. With victory they hope even for first place, with defeat would
have two defeats from Bilbao and will wait for the ties, but things get
complicated (basically hopes on Fener.Ulker’s defeat to have her along with two
wins). Team with vast experience, very good defense and good three-point
shooting but also large gaps in their performance and a lot of changes with NBAers
had gone. Fill (not in quality though) inside with the return of M. Bjelica.
With Barcelona in Spain, however, did play extremely good (71-60!) and now has a
good psychology. He knows how to get critical games but we are not convinced.
** Great game. Caja has the weight, experience and slight
edge but Bilbao is capable of everything. And I say No Bet for another reason.
If Olympiakos – Cantu win, with a the win of Bilbao both Basque teams advance over
Fener!!! So if you know what is going on we pay attention at the final minutes as
we might have delays and other Greek stuff… As they have good relations.
Most likely BETS
Wins: Olympiakos, Caja Laboral, Armani, Fener, Maccabi
Handicap: Nancy +7
Over-under: Under Olympiakos 151, Milano 146, Fener 144
Our Picks
Wins: Fener (A) and after Milano (B)
Handicap: Nancy +7 (A)
Over-under: Under Olympiakos 151 (B)
*** (Terminology value bet A 100 Euros, B 50 Euros) ***