From Guru of Patras
07/12/2011 (15:25)

CSKA – KK Zagreb CO

CSKA (last results)
Bamberg 94-74
KK Zagreb CO 89-47
Panathinaikos 78-76 (overtime)
Malaga 77-66
Zalgiris 95-82
Bamberg 81-78

KK Zagreb CO (last results)
Panathinaikos 62-81
CSKA 47-89
Malaga 85-99
Zalgiris 80-78
Bamberg 86-74
Panathinaikos 76-94

** CSKA can go in this game as they want, however, lots of times they do not open the game but we should consider that KK has many absences. That’s why the handicap is rising and went already -22. Logical the handicap  of -21, -22. of course we should hope that the Rusians don’t slow down again. Probable the under at 156 as KK will hardly score 60-65p with all the absences they have.

Zalgiris – Panathinaikos

Zalgiris (last results)
Malaga 78-85 (overtime)
Panathinaikos 75-92
Bamberg 81-70
KK Zagreb CO 78-80
CSKA 82-95
Malaga 67-65

KK Zagreb CO 81-62
Zalgiris 92-75
CSKA 76-78 (overtime)
Bamberg 76-79
Malaga 77-76
KK Zagreb CO 94-76

** Its a very tricky game. Panathinaikos has clearly the lead but it’s a cunning game especially in the handicap. Besides, Zalgiris has the motive, the home court advantage and good players in the perimeter and Panathinaikos has lapses in their performance. Also they don’t have much pressure. So the 1.40 to 1.45 is not bad, but be careful. Of course the champions have made setbacks in Bamberg and Kavala already and they want to recover. Place it carefully but not the handicap.

Anadolu Efes- Armani MI

Anadolu Efes (last results)
Charleroi 79-80
Armani MI 62-54
Maccabi 72-79
Real 84-104
Partizan 67-58
Charleroi 66-62

Armani MI (last results)
Real 78-85
Anadolu Efes 54-62
Charleroi 81-76
Partizan 65-69
Maccabi 76-85
Real 65-72

 ** This is a very important and stressful game for both sides. Bodies will fall on this one! Logic says low scores because of the anxiety and zones defenses of both. Efes is going to put the ball inside the paint to wear Bourousis but they don’t have the capable playmakers. Without Gallinari however they might find chemistry the Italians. Logically the 1.30 at the home team does not make sense. Armani MI with +7 makes more sense because they will fight, but more the under at 148 and 146.

Bilbao – Cantu

Bilbao (last results)
Nancy 73-87
Cantu 69-78
Fener.Ulker 70-73
Caja Laboral 89-84
Olympiakos 81-88
Nancy 97-75

Cantu (last results)
Caja Laboral 69-81
Bilbao, 78-69
Olympiakos 64-63
Fener.Ulker 83-85 (overtime)
Nancy 75-76
Caja Laboral 71-68

** Bilbao is reliable at home even though has lapses in their performance. Logic says Bilbao wins but Cantu fights hard. Marginal but possible is the -7 as Bilbao goes for the 10p. we should avoid the under as the game might go with a lot of free throws. Also Cantu shows signs of fatigue in defense.

Prokom – Olimpija L.

Prokom (last results)
Barcelona 61-88
Olimpija 62-70 L
Unics 68-72
Siena 73-84
Galatasaray 76-78 (overtime)
Barcelona 45-76

Olimpija L (last results)
Siena 57-79
Prokom 70-62
Galatasaray 70-79
Unics Kazan 51-81
Barcelona 46-72
Siena 57-63

** Prokom wins for the prestige and easily. But do not forget that while finding a devastated team and the 16p which went automatically handicap is not few for mediocre team without victory and without significant incentive. So we don’t bother with this one. Logically, the 142 has logic with the tight defense of Prokom and  with Olimpija not scoring. So they will hardly score 55p and theunder at 142 is reasonable. Especially in live.

Nancy – Fenerbahce Ulker

Nancy (last results)
Bilbao, 87-73
Fener.Ulker 86-90
Caja Laboral 90-85
Olympiakos 78-91
Cantu 76-75
Bilbao 75-97

Fener.Ulker (last results)
Olympiakos 74-81
Nancy 90-86
Bilbao 73-70
Cantu 85-83 (Fri.)
Caja Laboral 85-90 (overtime)
Olympiakos 86-70

** In this game the favorite is Fener but the game is tricky. Even without Batum at the beginning of the year Nancy at home wasn’t capable of claiming these games? Clearly yes and Fener are unstable and face problems against the zone. Probable the under, but we may have lots of free throws. We go towards the home team +4.

*** An interesting day. But the point is that somewhere there will be an upset. We don’t bother with Prokom with 16p but we go with the under. Panathinaikos wins and  CSKA can get the handicap. Also go for Armani MI and basically under. Bilbao wins and Nancy is a marginal ace.

Most likely BETS
Wins: Panathinaikos, Bilbao
Handicap: CSKA -21, Milan +7 and  after Bilbao -7, Nancy +4
Under /over: Under for Armani MI 146-148 under Prokom 142 and after CSKA 156 mainly in live

Our Picks
Wins: Panathinaikos, Bilbao
Handicap: CSKA -21, Armani MI +7 not strongly
Under /over: Under Armani MI 146-148 under Prokom 142 consecutive mainly in live