From Guru of Patras
The final two rounds of the first phase of the Euroleague
and today we must watch what teams are indifferent, those who have qualified,
or those who have virtually ruled out as we have seen the dissolution of teams
such as Olimpija Ljubljana. Besides, is not important if you get the 1st or 2nd
place. And overall ranking is not very interesting. The qualification has
already secured for CSKA, Panathinaikos, Barcelona, Siena, Unics, Cantu, Real Madrid, Efes Pilsen, and
Maccabi and almost there is Fener, Caja Laboral, Olympiakos, Galatasaray. Interestingly,
no team has been excluded, but only mathematical hopes exist for some. CSKA and
Barcelona want to go undefeated.
The most important game is that between CSKA with Kirilenko
back, but it does not play well and Panathinaikos that seems to get it together
and this constitutes a kind of crash test.
Olympiakos seals qualification at home with secured Cantu!
Great match in Siena, but the local team has many injuries for the game against
Barcelona. Armani MI falters but still hopes to qualify. Maccabi has qualified
but there is talking about the performances. Also consider that the last
remaining NBAers left. Bilbao plays a do or die game in Fener.Ulker. In trouble
is Malaga, qualification for the winner in the game of Bamberg. Indifferent is
only the fourth group.
CSKA – Panathinaikos
CSKA (last results)
KK Zagreb CO 89-47
Panathinaikos 78-76 (overtime)
KK Zagreb CO 87-74
Panathinaikos (last results)
CSKA 76-78 (overtime)
KK Zagreb CO 94-76
** The key here is if Kirilenko plays. Reasonable yields of
1.40 and 5p, and marginal. CSKA doesn’t play well and if Kirilenko is off they can
lose from a good Panathinaikos. But if they play hard on defense they might
keep Panathinaikos low in scoring. I want to remind that in the Olympic Stadium
the Greens had played very well and had lost after leading +12 in a rather unfortunate
end. With all that we do not bother with this one. We prefer the under at
151-152 as reasonably the game will be played to 70-75p.
Galatasaray – Olimpija L.
Galatasaray (last results)
Prokom 78-76 (Fri.)
Unics Kazan 61-72
Olimpia L. (last results)
Unics Kazan 51-81
** Galatasaray can win this one easily. But why mess with the
handicap? Ok the home team might get the handicap. But we prefer the under at 139
witch also falls as Olimpija is difficult to score against any good defense
like Galata over 55p. And logically we’ll see bad basketball.
KK Zagreb CO – Malaga
KK Zagreb CO (last results)
Malaga (last results)
KK Zagreb CO 99-85
** Evil game. Certainly Malaga has more depth and better
team experience and name. And as much as KK isa tricky team we go with Malaga
here that however will not win easily.
Armani MI – Charleroi
Armani MI (last results)
Armani MI 76-81
Efes Pilsen 62-66
** Armani MI has the lead and wins reasonably but not easily
with the militant Belgium team. But less than 1.20 is meaningless. Neither have
we cared about the 9p. We pick the under with 152 as Milano will probably go to
a low score as it does at home and with much zone defense.
Real Madrid – Partizan
Real (last results)
Armani MI 72-67
Partizan (last results)
Armani MI 69-65
** Weird game fro betting. May be loose, but Partizan can
fight for the upset if it finds Real loose or if they are in good mood (Real)
they might just win easily. So this is a classic No bet.
Caja Laboral – Nancy
Caja Laboral (last results)
Fener 90-85 (overtime)
Nancy (last results)
Caja Laboral 90-85
** Caja wins one way or the other. Weird game for betting
but as if Nancy once again run out of strenght at the end and especially if they
are disappointed and Caja shoots well, we might see a 20 points game. So do not
Most likely BETS
Wins: Malaga, Armani MI
Under-over: Under CSKA 151, Galatasaray 139, Armani MI 152
Wins: Malaga, Armani MI
Under-over: Under CSKA 151, Armani MI 152