From Guru of Patras
21/12/2011 (15:33)

Zalgiris – KK Zagreb CO

Zalgiris (last results)
Bamberg 81-70
KK Zagreb CO 78-80
CSKA Moscow 82-95
Malaga 67-65
Panathinaikos 59-94
Bamberg 82-68

KK Zagreb CO (last results)
Malaga 85-99
Zalgiris 80-78
Bamberg 86-74
Panathinaikos 76-94
CSKA Moscow 74-87
Malaga 67-82

**** Zalgiris at home and with their experience can win one way or the other to get the qualification. KK does not have much stress and we should be careful especially with the gaps Zalgiris has especially against the zone. With 8-10 p we don’t bother, nor with the 1.10 and 1.15! No Bet.

Malaga – CSKA Moscow

Malaga (last results)
KK Zagreb 99-85
CSKA Moscow 66-77
Panathinaikos 76-77
Zalgiris 65-67
Bamberg 79-90
KK Zagreb CC 82-67

CSKA Moscow (last results)
Panathinaikos 78-76 (Fri.)
Malaga 77-66
Zalgiris 95-82
Bamberg 81-78
KK Zagreb 87-74
Panathinaikos 91-75

** CSKA has absences and Malaga is complete plays at home and with good psychology can win the game and break the CSKA’s undefeated course. CSKA even with Panathinaikos played only one good half. Not worth the 1.50 as CSKA is indifferent. The home team perhaps with 4p but still not convinced and we should avoid it. No Bet.

Panathinaikos – Bamberg

Panathinaikos (last results)
CSKA Moscow 76-78 (overtime)
Bamberg 76-79
Malaga 77-76
KK Zagreb CO 94-76
Zalgiris 94-59
CSKA 75-91 *

Bamberg (last results)
Zalgiris 70-81
Panathinaikos 79-76
KK Zagreb CO 74-86
CSKA Moscow 78-81
Malaga 90-79
Zalgiris 68-82

** Panathinaikos is not tired at all from Monday’s game  but what incentive do they have now? Perhaps getting revenge for their defeat in Germany. Bamberg believes in qualification? Not really and they will be tired. Panathinaikos owes a good game, its about time and we can go with him at -11.

Prokom – Siena

Prokom (last results)
Unics Kazan 68-72
Siena 73-84
Galatasaray 76-78 (Fri.)
Barcelona 45-76
Olimpija 67-52 L
Unics Kazan 41-68

Siena (last results)
Barcelona 75-92
Prokom 84-73
Unics Kazan 73-79
Olimpija 63-57 L
Galatasaray 67-63
Barcelona 77-74

** This is an indifferent game and maybe a bad one. Prokom with the defense of Siena will not score 55p. But is Siena going to play all out? With so many injuries, why… kill themselves in an indifferent game and with 1.30 do not tangle. With 143 points is reasonably under since the  Polish team plays also good defense. Just beware that due to indifference of the teams the game may be an open one. Logically, however, we go with 143 that makes sense.

Barcelona – Galatasaray

Barcelona (last results)
Siena 92-75
Galatasaray 70-66
Olimpija 72-46 L
Prokom 76-45
Unics 63-50
Siena 74-77

Galatasaray (last results)
Olimpija 79-70 L
Barcelona 66-70
Prokom 78-76 (Fri.)
Unics Kazan 61-72
Siena 63-67
Olimpija L 80-59

** That game is solely up to Barcelona. Which however has  moaning and its not playing well at all. But it’s time for a good game and owes an outbreak even without Navarro. Galata will hardly score 60-65p. we take the home team at  -14 and logically under with 143 unless the rhythm opens.

Olimpija L. – Unics Kazan

Olimpija L (last results)
Galatasaray 70-79
Unics Kazan 51-81
Barcelona 46-72
Siena 57-63
Prokom 52-67
Galatasaray 59-80

Unics Kazan (last results)
Prokom 72-68
Olimpija 81-51 L
Siena 79-73
Galatasaray 72-61
Barcelona 50-63
Prokom 68-41

* This is another game that will be a low quality unless Unics is relaxed due to qualification and indifference. But they have learned to play, slow basketball. Olimpija will hardly score 60p? With 1.20 we don’t tangle ever for the win and handicap. Olimpija without stress can make those threes even with the second unit as it is indeed an indifferent game. In Euroleague with 1.20 will NEVER bet! Logical the under at 139-140p here since Olimpija will score 55-60p.

Most likely BETS
Wins: (above 1.15) Zalgiris, Unics
Handicap: Panathinaikos -11, Barcelona -14, Malaga +4
Under-over: Under Olimpija 140, Barcelona 143, Siena 143

Our Picks
*** (Terminology value bet for example A 100 euros, B 50 euros) ***
Handicap: Panathinaikos -11 (A)
Under-over: under Olimpija 140 (B) mainly in live