From Guru of Patras
09/11/2011 (11:39)

Olimpija L. – Galatasaray

Olimpija L. (last games)
·    Barcelona 64-86
·    Siena 57-79
·    Prokom 70-62

Galatasaray (last games)
·    Prokom 76-72
·    Ounix 64-68
·    SIENA 77-103

This is an interesting game for qualification. As they both want to qualify and put each other underneath after Prokom. Olimpija Ljubljana got a major victory against Prokom relatively easy but had ups and downs in their performance after having 10-13 point leads and at 63-47 in 32 minute they suffered a 2-12 run and the game was 65-59 at the 38 minute. All of their defeats were on schedule and did not loose a game they wanted. So there is a good atmosphere around the team.

They are expecting more people today, as with Prokom were 6500 fans. And had 11 three pointers which is their weapon offensively. But they lack roster depth. Markota is the the last minute problem who is questionable. They easily defeated 85-70 in the Radnicki in Adriatic League.

* Galatasaray is pretty much like we expected. However he lost easily, and looked very bad especially in defense, from Siena in Italy (20-7 start and then the difference in 25 points). Defeated 86-68 Hacettepe Un in Turkey and got psyched up. It is a game they want to win to qualify and with the win in Poland they will have the advantage..

But beware because they have many ups and downs and in Poland won at the end as they wasted an 18 point difference! Key player is Lakovic in offense because if he doesn’t score Galatasaray hardly reaches 70 points.

*** Weird game. Very strange. Olimpija plays better at home but not anything special. But so are the Turks. They will both have anxiety and Galatasaray is a more complete team, but with big blackouts. No Bet and simply prefer the unser at 147 points as reasonably the gane will be at 70-72p.

Prokom – Unics Kazan

Prokom (last results)
·    Galata Saray 72-76
·    Barcelona 61-88
·    Olimpija 62-70 L

Unics Kazan (last results)
·    Siena 71-79
·    Galatasaray68-64
·    Barcelona 65-93

This game is also important for qualification of the teams, although the Polish Prokom sees that there can be no hope. Besides they are in big trouble and probably have financial problems. After the departure of Brown, and Gee the best player with 12p and 7 reb left and the mediocre squad is poorer! And the climate is not good.

Lost easily and fairly in Ljubljana and made modest performance offensively despite the 10 threes they made. Generally … they struggle to reach 70 points!

In Slovenia logically lost relatively easily and was behind the beginning of 10-13 points and 63-47 in 32 made a 2-12 run and the game in 38′ went to 65-59, but nothing more. Just beware that they are fighting team (thye turned around the game agianst Galatasaray from -18 and made it a  thriller). They are rested as they did not have a game after Olimpija, but with … troubles!

* Unics is what we expected. Crashed by Barcelona and after the 30-32 they just collapsed having 2/12 threes who is their prime weapon offensively as they don’t get points from their frontline having big bodies who cannot score.

In VTB League they won 62-48 on Sunday away at Lokomotiv Kuban. They rely on the defense. One-dimensional offensively, and with Greer and Lyday mixing up their roles!

Tough game, but Unics has the advantage clearly. Which is more complete team and they will lower the score. The win of Olympiakos is dropping rapidly and in 7p climbed the handicap. At 1.30 is low for the Euroleague Unics reasonably passes but don’t bother. It is what we call … strange games! Logic, however, the Under with 145-146 points and the match will be at 65-67p for Prokom.

Cantu – Olympiakos

Cantu (last results)
·    Nancy 80-69
·    Caja Laboral 69-81
·    Bilbao, 78-69

Olympiakos (last results)
·    Bilbao 61-76
·    Fener 81-74
·    Caja Laboral 79-81

This is a very important game for both teams. The historical Cantu had a great victory in Bilbao in a game that comfortably cleared unexpectedly, however, and since they had 5-10p difference playing hard defense. Besides we are talking about a team that plays great defense like a miniature Siena. They have a very powerful home arena. They are able to qualify as they play excellent in their home and this is a key game. In Italy look bad lost 72-55 away from Benetton and they don’t have a deep team nor the  experience.

* Olympiakos vindicates us as we said that the team that reduced the budget and not have such a high level roster compared to other years, but they are competitive and will have good days like last year. So he lost a great opportunity to earn the win in the Caja, they passed easily 97-84 from Rethymno. It has a fuller roster. But they have dry spells offensively and their three point percentage is still low.

* As we have said and seen all the matches of Olympiakos are… subversively with large fluctuations and reversals. So they need special attention when we bet. Good Olympiakos wins, bad Olympiakos loses and easily (5-6p) if they get stuck in offense with the tough defense of Italians playing in foul limit and therefore we may have many foul shots. Logic says under at 148 points unless you have several trips to the foul line for foul shots at the end. The under in trading looks vey good.

Malaga – KK Zagreb CO

Malaga (last results)
·    Panathinaikos 77-98
·    Zalgiris 85-78 (overtime)
·    Bamberg 79-78

KK Zagreb CO (last results)
·    Bamberg 65-96
·    Panathinaikos 62-81
·    CSKA Moscow 47-89

Easy game for Malaga and its up to the Spanish team how the game will end up! Malaga is in very good condition and won in Germany against Bamberg in a dramatic game that is nearly qualification. Since they were losing 22-11 then lead by 29-30, then preceded with 51-58 but the match was a thriller (61-60) and won finally because of their experience. Very powerful home court arena with 13000 fans, won easily in Spain against Valladolid with (78-51). Probably Tripkovic will play only in Euroleague. Fitch is doubtful but they have great depth. They usually open up the games wide open for their crowd in the easy games at home.

* KK Zagreb CO as we have said is by far the worst team of the tournament. They looked awful against CSKA and got crashed eventually. And since there is a lot of money for any type of movements and new coach they don’t expect prosperity! Mey returns, however, but Garrett. The good thing is that they had a good performance and got little encouragement primarily psychological in the Adriatic League where they won against Crvena Zvezda where they hit 14/20 threes (!) with 102-85!

*** Its in Malaga’s mood if they win by 20 points difference and depending on whether they will run for the under/over. They way KK Zagreb CO plays, however, Malaga can get their 20p difference unless the Spaniards slow down out of pity.

Bilbao – Fener.Ulker (last results)

·    Olympiakos 76-61
·    Nancy 73-87
·    Cantu 69-78

Fener.Ulker (last results)
·    Caja Laboral 66-69
·    Olympiakos 74-81
·    Nancy 90-86

It’s a great game and perhaps the most interesting of the evening. Bilbao with the Greek community is not convincing in the Euroleague and its coming off mediocre performances and defeats away from Nancy and Cantu and there is a concern because the games were projected as wins to qualify but eventually lost them both. This means that now there is no room for defeat at home. Expect a lot from its home court arena with 9000 people.

In Cantu were Jackson and Vassiliadis remained scoreless and lost easily after having problems playing sometimes good defense and sometimes good offense! On Saturday, lost 81-73 to Manresa though they turned the match around from 29-9 (!) at the first quarter, made it a derby in the fourth period. Large gaps inside the game of playing poorly and they will have stress today.

** Fener as we are saying for a long time doesn’t look good. With Nancy they had again ups and downs after losing to 2-7 with a 15-0 run they passed 34-17 and 55-34. But the French team reduced 70-64 and fought to the end (84-79 in 37 ‘). Big dry spells, no balance, very poor management of Spahija. Some key players are out of place and time. Defeat in Turkey from Besiktas 83-78.

** This is a key game for both teams with great anxiety. Bilbao looks more ready but without great balance. Same style with Fener has perhaps more full roster but with a mediocre point guard. Teams with lots of ups and downs so stay away! Besides, somewhere Fener will awake as they have a good roster that wants too reach F-4! This is a classic NO Bet for victory and a simple interest in the +3 of Fener.

** Generally it’s a weird day. Low the 1.30 of Unics and close games in Cantu and Bilbao and open game in Ljubljana. Due to stress and hard games we will go with the under if we don’t have the games going to the foul liner at the end. In handicap if Malaga is in the mood they will get the 20 points but we don’t bother?
We will go with unders and especially in live.

* remember that games of 1.05 and 1.10 NEVER deserve to bet. Also singles, with odds of 1.70 and over and handicaps and under/over we play them mainly livebetting.

Most likely bets

Wins: Unics
Handicap: Malaga -20, Fener +3
Under/over: Under Prokom at 146, under Olimpija at 147, under Olympiakos at 148


Wins: —
Handicap: —
Over/under: Under Prokom at 146, under Olimpija at 147, under Olympiacos at 148 (2-3) or sinles at live.