From Guru of Patras

10/11/2011 (16:35)

Zalgiris – Bamberg

Zalgiris (last


78-85 (overtime)


Bamberg (last results)

Zagreb 96-65

CSKA Moscow 74-94

Malaga 78-79

This is an interesting game. Zalgiris wants to make a clean start, since they don’t have a win yet, but
this does not mean anything, since all their losses were on schedule and therefore
they still can accomplish their objectives which are none other than the
qualification to the next phase. Indeed turbulent Zalgiris because of their president just keeps the good
performances in Olympic Stadium and
against Malaga
in Spain
where they lost in overtime and in Athens where
the game opened at the end. They showed signs of improvement in both games.

Trifunovic is the
coach now and the assistant is Stobergas.
They had a solid performance in Olympic
aginst Panathinaikos as they
were in front long enough (38-42, 53-50) and just got tired at the end with the
score at 71-62. 

Had the game against Riga
on Monday for the VTB League and lost,
however, with 88-79 (!). But rather took it lightly! Generally they play good at
home where they expect 10.000 fans in Kaunas Arena. They have a good roster, but
not balance having similar players in some positions. Weems is in excellent form and generally seeks to play in th open

** On the other hand the German Bamberg lost a great opportunity
with Malaga and is bitter because this year they
want to go a step further and qualify. Led by 22-11, fell behind 29-30,
responded 51-58 (61-60) but had no clear mind in the end. They play tough team defense are
a team with European experience and now has more depth, better roster and more
efficient offense. With a victory in Kaunas they
are back in business for qualifying! Easy win in Germany 97-63 against Frankfurt. Bamberg is a team that knows how to react
with their good defense.

** Zalgiris will probably get the win one way or the other. Bamberg
fights in away games and so the
match will not be easy. Zalgiris has
a strange chemistry. Low are the
odds of 1.35 to 1.40 but we’ll take the win
of Zalgiris. No handicap and towards the under with 158 as Trifunovic is a defensive coach and
perhaps will change their playing style and Bamberg
is a classic defensive team also going to lower the score.

Anadolu Efes – Maccabi

Anadolu Efes (last results)


Charleroi 79-80

MI 62-54

Maccabi (last results)

MI 82-89



This is one of the big games of the week
and very unpredictable. Efes is still
looking for play duration and chemistry. However after the fiasco with Charleroi they
broke even with the big win in Milan with
excellent defensive performance as in offense they were tragic with 2/11threes
and just 62p. However they showed that they are actually a good team, of
course, not ready yet with new players and plays good defense. Although with the
Belgian team they didn’t even play that!

And of course they have
great depth. Led by 9-22 in Milan,
the Italians closed the game 34-36 but Efes
quickly got back (36-47) and reached a comfortable victory. 15.000 fans in the
arena tonight, still inconsistent and has not overcome the shock from Charleroi.
In Turkey
they won 84-76 in
Banvit BK.

* Maccabi started playing well after the defeat from Milano than clinched a great victory against Real playing great basketball and the NBAer
Farmar had 29p playing according to his
capabilities and being the leader. Maccabi is a tempo team and remember that last
year began with a defeat in Spain
and after had 9 / 9!
They do, however, have a
problem in the long range shot, and with Real
they basically won with an 11-0 run at 25-31 (36-31) and then had the
difference in 10p and won easily. They
have good ball handlers and therefore know how to keep differences.
However, this needs more improvement to.

** It’s a classic derby and a nice game.
Maccabi seems more ready and has a
reasonably advantage. Clearly, however a good Efes can win this one as they have a good roster. Certainly Maccabi wants to take the advantage in
the playmaker position where they are faster. But Efes has big guys to deal with Sofo
and with their zone defense thy can
trap Maccabi T-A which has problems
in shooting and waits for the adaptation of newly arrived Langford. It’s a weird game, a classic
No Bet in everything despite having a tendency in the under with 157.

Charleroi – Armani MI

Charleroi (last results)


Efes 80-79


Armani MI (last results)



Efes 54-62

This is a risky trip for
Armani MI that comes after bad performances. And there is big concern with many stars such as Nicholas not performing well and our
own Antonis Fotsis. Cook is alone at
the playmaker position and he is not Euroleague level. They were awful in the last two games offensively, without team
unity, and very bad choices offensively. They have an excuse though as they had
poor preparation because of the Eurobasket,
and despite the excellent roster they are totally unprepared.

So they lost easily from Efes
with tragic percentages (2/16 threes), while cut the lead to 34-36 from 9-22
but had no succession. Had problems with the
incredibly weak Novipiu Casale playing
away and turned the match in the end and won 67-64 but in a quarter suffered a
19-1 run by the local weak team!

* Charleroi defeated very
difficult 64-59 against Leuven in
the league, fought in Belgrade
turned from -10 (58-60, 73-70) but had no
clear thinking in the end. Certainly it is a tricky and fighting team and
remember they defeated Efes and
therefore we can’t underestimate them. A
team that plays well at home but it lacks depth. They have experience and
chemistry, however, sees a qualification playing an American-style basketball.

** Charleroi is a cunning and resourceful team and Armani MI not at its best and when they
don’t hit their threes they crash on offense. But there is a big difference in
quality. The 1.45 to 1.50 is good. Enough
for us and we take it as Armani MI has depth and can win.

Barcelona – Siena

Barcelona (last results)



Kazan 93-65

Siena (last results)

Kazan 79-71


Galatasaray 103-77

This is a traditional derby and a Crash
Test for both teams! Barcelona
seems to be finding rhythm and improving a lot. They passed easily 30-32 from Kazan
with excellent defense and especially offensive pluralism. They just put on the
breaks in Spain with Badalona
(82-70). Overall a team with great depth and excellent quality that is very powerful
but he lacks duration and sometimes has problems with opponents who play tough and
wants attention as many times they lost to Siena
and Panathinaikos who play that way!
If you remove them from their pace they have problems with the hard play and tough defense.

* Siena started badly but also is finding
rhythm. So after the cruise to Galatasaray with the best performance of this year and
then in Italy they leveled 85-52 Roma with again a big game especially on defense, which is their
primary weapon. Rakocevic begins to
integrate and had 12p with Roma.
Overall its a team with awesome
chemistry which plays an impressive defense.
They are very dangerous even in away games.
Moss stays until further notice. No stress in this game.

** Barcelona is closer to win and has the advantage
reasonably as they play at home but Siena if takes
the game to their pace meaning a hard game, it wants attention. But Barcelona has
SF and PF that can hurt Siena in their
weaknesses as they go with short lineups and Moss is an uncomfortable situation.

But Siena with McCalebb can hurt Barcelona
aiming at the weak in defense Huertas. Clearly such games are not played at
1.20. With the handicap
at 8.5 p there is No Bet because the
game can go either at 15p or be a thriller. With 150p we rather go to under as Siena
will attempt to lower the score.

Nancy – Caja Laboral

Nancy (last results)


Bilbao 87-73


Caja Laboral




 Interesting game and wants attention as
Caja is in a very comfortable position. Nancy fought in Turkey with Linehan making a tournament record with
15 assists! In a game that was out of schedule, but they fought anyway. They
started strong and led 2-7 and then suffered a 15-0 run and were back 34-17 and
55-34. But Nancy responded reduced to 70-64 and
fought to the end (84-79 in
37 ‘).

Nancy plays hard at home and might qualify if
they get this game especially. In excellent condition psychologically with the
win against Villeurbanne
with a 92-77! They want to fight fatigue, however, as they don’t have much
depth. In the excellent form the NBAer

** Caja Laboral is a strange and
peculiar team. They had a very difficult victory against Olympiakos and are undefeated and without
worries having done the win in Turkey.
But they are not convinced and are
generally a strange team. With Olympiakos they were loosing the whole game but took the match at the end mainly with help of
their fans. In Spain
easy win with 72-53 vs Obradoiro at home.

Team that plays good defense this year rely on three-pointers also
and has trouble at the center position and depth since NBAers Williams and Dorsey aren’t anything
special. They want attention and does sometimes extreme performances with ups
and downs.

** Tricky game as Caja is relatively comfortable and Nancy
enthusiast and not bad as a team. We are more towards the win of Nancy (1) with 3 points. But
because Nancy has no depth, and if Caja starts making three-pointers they
might grab the game easily. And because there is anxiety for them today! So classic No Bet.

Partizan – Real

Partizan (last results)

Efes 73-84


Charleroi 91-81


Charleroi 100-76

MI 85-78


This is a dangerous trip for the “queen” Real in a hostile arena. Real lost, however, fairly and easily
in Tel Aviv by Maccabi with moderate performance especially in defense and did not
have good rhythm and duration. In Israel
led by 25-31, suffered a 11-0 run (36-31) and just cut the lead at the end
after having a 10-12p difference.

However they have a great roster and play well
and score anywhere. In Spain they won at the end 78-65 in Seville with mediocre performance. Generally
not in their peak but a full roster which has once again confused individual
roles. They have huge depth. Rudy gives them explosion.

* Partizan relies on home court and fans as Hala Pionir it is one of the toughest stadiums in Europe.
Great victory vs Charleroi
and they can qualify since they lost games on schedule. Pekovic makes a difference and so does Macvan who make a good duo in the fronline.

Partizan is always a team that has good chemistry and plays tough defense. This year due to Law playing the point guard and Pekovic playing more aggressively and
scoring has changed its style and team scores more than they use to and are
somewhat worse in defense. Their bench is mediocre, and this is a stress-free
game of course. They defeated 91-67 Cibona in the Adriatic League.

** After all the depth that Real
has we go with the double (victory for Real) as its relatively good the odds of
1.45. Partizan will fight but they
are not that good. But we don’t bother with the handicap because the Serbs are

Panathinaikos – CSKA Moscow

Panathinaikos (last results)


KK Zagreb CO


CSKA (last results)

Zalgiris 87-74

Bamberg 94-74

KK Zagreb CO 89-47

That’s the game of this round in the Euroleague. And it’s the first big game of Euroleague in general. Panathinaikos
is in good condition and comes from easy games. With Zalgiris they had problems, and the score and the point difference opened
at the end. After trailing for a long time in the game (38-42, 53-50) they won
easily after the score being 71-62.

is the game to win for them to prove themselves playing with the biggest
opponent to date and the absolute favorite for winning the Euroleague. They
expect the Olympic Stadium filled with 15.000 fans. They won at home vs Ikaros 93-58 on Sunday. This year the
roster is deep but they don’t have yet solve the problem at the 4 position and
go with half measures and solutions. Panathinaikos
plays well, but all insist that it is early yet.

* CSKA is in excellent condition.
And for many they are the big favorites for the tittle. They won in Zagreb with the weak KK. Crashed 72-45 Azovmas in the VTB League and also see the match also as a big test for their readiness, as after that, they have an
easy schedule.
Fully armed in the frontline and especially in 4 position were PAO has a
problem as they are playing with very tall lineups. They want to show that it
is the best team in Europe. Lavrinovits is out at the center but
they have Kaun behind Krstic.

* Its a great game also in betting on. PAO has depth, but finds a
CSKA not suited for him (matchups). Siskauskas
is the antidote for Diamantidis
and without Perperoglou can not play
with Sato in 3 to counter Kirilenko! So they might go with Kaimakoglou on Kirilenko and Tsartsaris
at 4.
Logically CSKA will go with the tall
lineups that they possess and will hide the basket on defense.

With line ups with
Siska at 2 and Kirilenko at 3 and behind Krstic
the ferocious Kaun and the big and
crowded bench. Problem for the Russians is the composure of Teodosic in point
guard and Kazlaouskas in the bench,
but we may be exaggerating.
We talk for a big game which CSKA has a way to cut PAO and to lower his scoring with key
the three pointer as they will unlikely threaten CSKA at 3 and 4 position. Thus CSKA
has the advantage while Panathinaikos
plays at home.

** Yesterday we went well and as we expected fro all gamew. Let’s see what we
do today. The victories of Real, Armani
and Zalgiris are reasonable bets,
especially on 2-3. we don’t bother with the games in Constantinople  and Barcelona. Also don’t
bet on Nancy. CSKA in good odds but we play it by itself (single). In the handicap don’t touch anything and the
unders are interesting.

* Remember that in games of
1.05 and 1.10 NEVER bet. Singles, with odds of 1.70 and above and handicaps and
under/over play them mainly in

Most likely bets

Wins: Real Madrid, Armani MI, Zalgiris, CSKA

Handicap: —

Unders/overs: Barcelona 150


Wins: Real Madrid, Armani MI, Zalgiris Treble and 2-3 cover- CSKA alone

Handicap: —-

Under/over: Barcelona 150 mainly


Wins for Real, Zalgiris, Armani MI