From Guru of Patras
03/11/2011 (17:13)
GROUP A
Fener.Ulker – Nancy
Fener.Ulker (last results)
·
Caja
Laboral 66-69
·
Olympiakos
74-81
Nancy (last results)
·
Cantu
69-80
·
Bilbao 87-73
This is a game that the Turks should win easily because if they lose today, its
gong to be embarrassing! That is if we are talking about a team with high goals.
But pointed out that they are playing
badly as Spahija is doing a very poor
job coaching this team! He is mainly responsible for the defeat in Peace and Friendship Stadium against Olympiakos as they totally controlled
the game (32-44 in
25 minutes), then collapsed and he didn’t manage to pull the team together.
Also at the end with the ball at its own hands with 17” to go and the score at
75-73 they made two mistakes and in out of bounds plays! Of course there is a
big disappointment from that performance.
The team has no chemistry, Sefolosha
helps out but confused the guards, they don’t have tall man to threaten from outside
and Bogdanovic and Preldzic are without
roles especially the first. They play terrible basketball but they are a very
good roster with strong home court. Defeated Bandirma Kir. 93-60 in the Turkish league.
*On the other hand Nancy had a great victory against Bilbao with the outstanding performance of Batum (26 points) and a surprising
finale as the game was a thriler up to the 37 minute (72-71) but ended with a
15-2 run in glorification. In France
they were tired and defeated Poitiers with difficulty
76-66 while losing 63-64. They are a team with weaknesses when playing away.
*This should be a reasonably easy game for Fener if Spahija …
wakes up. Batum may have a problem with Sefolosha
and Nancy may get stuck at 70 points. Fener
of course has a problem against the zone defense. The 1.15 is low even
though it passes, the 9 points is a marginal handicap. The under is possible because the game will go to about 80-70 or
slightly below (75-67 etc).
Cantu – Bilbao
Cantu (last results)
·
Nancy 80-69
·
Caja
Laboral 69-81
Bilbao (last results)
·
Olympiakos
76-61
·
Nancy 73-87
That is an important game for qualification in this difficult group where all have
hopes and Nancy
made the victory in Bilbao
and with +14. Cantu generally… a
miniature of Siena
with tremendous defense, strong home court arena and very fighting team. But
logically they are getting tired and don’t have a quality roster.
In Euroleague the center Ortner is in who
doesn’t play in Italy
due to the number of players not being Italians.
They fought in Caja for 30 minutes
(59-59) but could not prevail. In Italian League they suffered a shocking
defeat from Scavolini with 66-71 and
looked tired at the end. This is a key match for qualification to which they
believe.
They have a problem in offense, as Lighty’s contribution is not what they expected. But if Basile is in a bad dayas he was with Scavolini they have a serious problem
in the playmaker position since Mazzarino
mostly think to shoot.
*Bilbao after the defeat from Nancy
knows he must win, in order to qualify and unless they win away that won’t
happen. This is the second easiest game away and they have a good chance. Nancy in France
saw that still lacks experience at this level and lost easily in the end. On
Sunday defeated 95-80 Murcia
and looked good as it was even at +31 (76-45)!
Not yet found the balance they want as a team but they are good. And they have
a full roster. Last year they relied on defense this year has not yet been so
effective. In offense they improved.
*Normally the game is almost equally by the companies. Cantu has the home court advantage but
they are more tired than Bilbao. They
are also newcomers in the League and lack experience. Logic says the game is a thriller.
However, the Bilbao
has a fuller roster and a slight advantage.
We are leaning towards the +2.5 for
Bilbao, as we may even have overtime in this
game. And under at 148 since the game will probably be around 70-73 points.
GROUP B
Bamberg – Malaga
Bamberg (last results)
·
KK
Zagreb 96-65
·
CSKA Moscow 74-94
Malaga
·
Panathinaikos
77-98
·
Zalgiris
85-78 (overtime)
It’s a very interesting game. And it is important for qualification in this
difficult (except KK) group. Key match to German
Bamberg that has European style and plays to win at most games at this
level, in their strong home court arena and with their awesome defense and team
chemistry. We saw that last year how strong they were at home and this year they
are playing better in offense and have good automation. Lost in Moscow easily from the mighty
CSKA but didn’t look bad. In Germany
passed easily from Hagen
106-76!
*Malaga is
well known. A well prepared, good, but without so much quality team. Got a
dramatic victory with Zalgiris in
overtime after loosing 11 points and 5 points at 38 ‘! But there the home court
crowd got into the game. It started impressively in Spain but they are not intimidating
as they had an easy schedule.
On Sunday, lost 75-62 in
Valencia showing signs of fatigue
and scoring 21 points in the second half and especially at the end they were
without score for the last 4 ‘. Fitch is aout of shape with 0/5.
*Weird game. Bamberg is hard and strong at
home but Malaga
is most experienced and has a good quality. Logic says we will have a thriller which
will be decided at the end and in details and therefore we should avoid it.
Minimum torque in the home team. Marginal is the under at 152 but it has a
chance especially in the live in the
beginning. Besides, Bamberg
will look to bring the game around 70-75p.
GROUP C
Maccabi – Real
Maccabi
·
Armani
MI 82-89
·
Partizan
70-66
Real
·
Charleroi 100-76
·
Milan, 85-78
Very big game. The match of the day as they play two very big teams aiming at
the Final Four and even the title
with huge history and titles. Maccabi however trying to find a rhythm and awaits
the integration of their good scorer Langford.
With Partizan they had an easy job led
65-50, but relaxed at the end. Defeated on Saturday Partizan 78-67 again for
Adriatic league but on Monday against Elitzour in Israel they had problems even
though Sofo returned.
In good condition overall, although not playing like they want yet, not
having team chemistry and have an unexpected problem in the three-pointer.
Powerful at their arena were is a sold out. Aim to reduce the run and gun game
of Real with Rudy.
*Real in tremendous condition and this year with Rudy to make a difference in offense
and with Ibaka giving strength and depth to the frontline now looks better than
ever. And with inexperienced coach Lasso on the bench have found a balance.
Great win turning the gamer around with Milano, started badly on defense and fallen
behind 40-53, but then reached victory with ease. They won on Sunday in Gran
Canaria 68-60. Overall, however, they are very full as a team in the frontline
to wear down the bigs of Maccabi T-A.
*Very tight game. Maccabi is mighty traditionally in their home but still
unprepared and without duration and the three-pointer. Real is more prepared
and with better frontline. Logic says they will put the ball in and keep the pace.
There’s a key game for the first place in this difficult group. Real better
prepared and its victory is high and it is interesting.
We prefer the +3.5 with
them for more security if they actually played well. Curious is the under/ over at 156.
Partizan – Charleroi
Partizan (last
results)
·
Efes
Pilsen 73-84
·
Maccabi
66-70
Charleroi (last results)
·
Real
76-100
·
Eph
Pilsen 80-79
This is game is important for qualification. Since both are outsiders to
qualify in a tough group anyway. Partizan
has not yet victory, but they are not upset, as its defeats were within the
program and waits of course victory in this game in the hot home court one of
the toughest in Europe. They lost to Efes and
Maccabi. Mediocre performance in Tel Aviv.
Lost again 78-67 in the Adriatic league in Israel.
Generally it has trouble
scoring and hasn’t a great depth. Always plays with tremendous passion. Good
defense (however, not like other years since Pekovic and Lowe do not play as
passionate… due to the lockout!). Awesome home crowd, have Pekovic at the center who makes a
difference, but there isn’t talent and quality of other eras. However, Peko
with Matsvan make good duo.
*Charleroi after the crash from Real made a terrible game in Constantinople against Efes and got an away win in a
tremendous upset in the Euroleague. It started with 6-20 run surprisingly, the match was a thriller, was
then in front (70-76) and just Efes equalized at 39 ’76-76 but the Belgian team
took the win and hopes and still qualify.
If indeed today win with two
victories away and a defeat in schedule at home, they will be the favorites!
But do not forget that it’s a well prepared team with Euroleague experience but
relatively modest roster. They won 103-78 in Belgium away against Verviers-Pep.
*Partizan clearly has the lead, but the Belgians are a fighting team.
By this logic is strange that is only 1.20 the victory of Partizan and -7 after the Charleroi
did an away win in Turkey.
Logically we get the win of Partizan
but will not be easy and it is very likely double sign with 7.5 points. And also they will go to a reasonably low
score and under at 149. most likely the game would be at 75-77p.
Armani MI – Efes
Armani MI (last results)
·
Maccabi
89-82
·
Real
78-85
Efes
·
Partizan
84-73
·
Charleroi 79-80
Great and cunning game as many has already anointed Armani as the favorite.
Overall, however, both teams unprepared which had as a goal the Final Four and they
swept the summer transfer market throwing a lot of money. Milano was excellent
for 25 minutes in Madrid
and was leading 40-53 but then collapsed and lost easily.
They await 10.000 fans today, a good atmosphere. In Italy
played Sassari
away and won 88-60!
But beware that they don’t have good replacements in positions “1” and
“5”. And they don’t have yet team chemistry, so it plays sometimes
great and sometimes mediocre basketball. Probably Fotsis is out for the game today because of a sprain ankle.
Certainly has Gallinari but will not
have many qualitative subs. Hairston
will play a in “3” of course, and Gallinari and Bourousis and has Mancinelli as back up back.
*Efes comes from the shock from
Charleroi
after looking in great shape with the victory in Serbia with Partizan. Generally it is serious and well worked team, having
excellent roster and tremendous depth. But they underestimated the opponent started
with a 6-20, turned the match around (30-30), and tied the score 76-76 in 39 minute, but
surprisingly as more experienced team they lost at the end.
Accepted 12 threes, lost rebounds and raised questions. There is an issue
with the infinite Saritsa the bench but who has not gone badly, at least until the
game with the Belgian team. But it seems that entangled his team chemistry and as
he has an excellent roster they will probably recover. In Turkey they won
the 88-67 Olin Edirne. Tunceri Probably plays.
*Weird game. Milano with ups and downs is still largely unconnected. Efes has
enormous depth and can put the ball into the paint giving lots of problems to
Milano which behind Bourousis has
the short Rocca and Radosevic. Logically Efes will go in slow tempo.
We expect
tough game and doubtful. Very low for Milano at 1,15, never! Go
with the +5.5 of Efes which might get the clean victory. The under with 154 points
possible, but we rather let it.
GROUP D
Unics Kazan – Barcelona
Unics Kazan
·
Siena 71-79
·
Galatasaray
68-64
Barcelona
·
Olimpija L. 86-64
·
Prokom
88-61
A game with Barcelona
being the favourite of course. Unics Kazan vindicated us
to Turkey
with Galata and made clean victory, but we don’t have confidence in them. They
did get the win in upsetting in Turkey
and they are able to qualify. In a game that were constantly loosing, but turned
the game with their defense from 60-53 at 33 ‘ with a 12-2 run to (62-65) and
got the game with their experience a three point bomb from Domercant.
Strong home court arena, good defense, but beware because we don’t like their
style and manner of playing as their frontline is not threatening and don’t
score. Domercant and McCarty in
three points are predictable in offense. For this they lost easily in Siena by 11. Defeated in
VTB League away against Riga
with 99-85. Today, however, stress-free.
*Barcelona
did won very easily against the weak Prokom
and with good defense on Sunday passed easily 66-56 of the difficult court
of Fuenlabrada. The FC has terrific roster and is overflowing but still not
ready and needs time. Playing defense-one and with offense the other, depending
on the game. However we are concerned that it crashes many times.
*Barca will have no problem because the defense will lower the score the Unics
to 65-70p even though they don’t have a player to stop Domercant in personal defense. The 1.30 is not bad. We take it. The
7.5 is strange and can go up to 15 points but its still a derby. The 148 points
are also strange. But rather we go with the under especially at live since a reasonable score is 65-75, 68-77 etc, unless
they open the game early and the pace too.
Most likely bets
Wins: Fener, Barcelona, Partizan.
Handicap: Real +3, Efes +5, Bilbao +2
Under/Over: Cantu 148, FC 148, Bamberg152, Partizan
149
** Many games today, but not something easy. Many tight games. From
victories we’ll go with Fener, Barcelona,
Partizan. Capable of clean wins (2) –Real and Efes and want attention.
Generally a hard day and the favorites have large handicap and so be careful.
OUR PREDICTIONS
Wins: Fener, Barcelona, Partizan as
a triplet
Handicap: Real +3, Efes +5, Bilbao
+2 all prerequisites on their own
Under/Over: Cantu 148, FC 148, Bamberg 152, Partizan 149 mainly live
Basically we take the wins and handicap but do not get carried away.