From Guru of Patras
02/11/2011 (10:03)
GROUP A
Caja Laboral – Olympiakos
Caja Laboral (last results)
· FENER 69-66
· Cantu 81-69
Olympiakos (last results)
· Bilbao 61-76
· Fener 81-74
It’s a very interesting game. Caja has started with 2/2 in the Euroleague. In Spain their not doing very well but in Euroleague they are undefeated, and looking to clinch the lead in their group. With Cantu they had problems since the game was a derby for 30 minutes (59-59) and finally prevailed with the support of the fans and their experience at the last period with 81-69. This year, plays better defense but still unpredictable in general.
In Spain they won with ease on Sunday at Valladolid 76-64 but there were having a shaky performance (15-25, 34-33). They are playing in the other studium of the city, at “Arena Irantier” with 8000 fans asthey areexpanding the “Buesa Arena”. Serafin and Ivanovic are okay after their fights, they have a small bench, as the others NBAers Dorsey (first appearance today) and Williams did not show anything special so far. Powerful home arena, and the key to their offense is the three-pointer. They want to lower the offensive production of Olympiakos to 70 points.
* Olympiakos had an incredible victory against Fener who committed suicide after leading 32-44, Olympiakos turned it 75-73 with the ball to the Turks at 17” where they made two crucial mistakes! After the defeat in Bilbao there are happy to win this one. But they still have problems offensively. On Sunday they trashed Maroussi (92-63) in the Peace and Friendship Stadium.
As coach Ivkovic pointed out they are going to Spain without anxiety, Spanoulis is the leader again, the problem in three point shooting still there as they are notcreating easy shots. Pelekanos and Howard are out. Papadopoulos is questionable. If he is out they’ll have a problem in the center position.
* Weird game. You might say easy win for Caja but they are convincing either especially if they don’t hit their three-pointers. Of course Olympiakos tragic percentages at three-pointers Caja with simply decent numbers they’ll win. Not easy as Reds play good defense and stress may keep Caja low offensively. Offensively Olympiakos will struggle to score 70 p points and reasonably expect a score like 77-70.
Therefore the odds 1.30 to 1.35 are low for victory but we get it. Marginal the handicap and reasonable the under with 151 since Caja does not score much this season. But as we said for the Fener game all of Olympiakos games want attention this year as theteam has good and bad performances.
GROUP B
KK Zagreb – CSKA Moscow
KK Zagreb CO (last results)
· Bamberg 65-96
· Panathinaikos 62-81
CSKA Moscow (last results)
· Zalgiris 87-74
· Bamberg 94-74
This is where the two opposites of the tournament play. KK Zagreb is by far the worst team of the tournament as we have said from the beginning and as we saw in the first games! With Panathinaikos they reduced simply the point differential at the end as they were loosing 33-61 in 30 min. they have a significant problem in scoring as they have a bad roster. The situation is very heavy after the crash to Cedevita with 97-51 in Adriatic league. Always looking for a coach but they don’t have a lot of money for changes.
Ozbolt is oyt of sync from the rest of the team though he is the scorer of the team based on their tactics. No chemistry at all as a team, mediocre American platers. Not to many fans folow their games in Zagreb Arena.
* CSKA is a terrific condition and the favorite for the title. They breeze through their games so far, playing awesome basketball, even, with, tall line-ups and Kirilenko at “3” as they protect the basket and scatter terror at their opponents having unbelievable talent! They have tremendous depth. Teodosic is very mature at the playmaker position. They beat Bamberg extremely easy. They saved thei strength against Triumph 73-68 in the leagueits a matter of coah Kazlaouskas whether they rotate players or not.
* The game should be around 20 points logically. With the condition of the two teams it’s going to be like… practice for CSKA and 30 points difference with a score 60-90 to be reasonable. Only if CSKAs puts on the breaks the difference will come down. The under/over will be a matter of CSKA’s mood, as the defences might loosen but in a high tempo basketball KK does not pass the 55 points. The under at 150 might be interesting on live at the beginning and surebet directly.
GROUP D
Siena – Galatasaray
Siena (last results)
· Unics Kazan 79-71
· Olimpija 79-57 L
Galatasaray
· Prokom 76-72
· Unics 64-68
This is a game with Siena being the favorite reasonably. Siena that is not in good condition however, as are a very good team but they are still unprepared since virtually did not prepare because of having lots of internationals at Eurobasket. So they changed Summers, they are about o do the same with Moss and waiting for the integration of Rakocevic. Awesome home court and they have excellent defense f course.
They beat Olimpija easily (26-4 in 10 minutes!) and after they just relaxed. In Italy they beat Biella with 70-67 but struggled!
*On the other hand Galatasaray after the win in Poland, however, they were two-faced, and paid the poor percentages of Lakovic and the dryied spells and lost to Unics, although they were in front 60-53 in 33′. It continues to have great variations in performance. Considering the problems in Poland (accepted a run 18-0 from Prokom!) our concern is even though it’s a good team they lack experience. Pachulia again with problems is out. In Turkey they won 79-72 in the Karsiyaka.
* We looking forward to a bad and mediocre game. Siena is at 1.20 and dropping but logically, however. Although Galatasaray is not to be taken lightly, as Siena still with no easy scoring from long distance and if McCalebb doesn’t have a good night they might get stuck in a zone defense.
But they play excellent defense and it will be very difficult to accept more than 65-68 points. The handicap is marginal especially if Lakovic hits three pointers. The odds of 1.20 low, but it just pass but very difficult. Towards the under with 148 specially on the live.
Olimpija L. – Prokom
Olimpija L (last results)
· Barcelona 64-86
· Siena 57-79
Prokom (last results)
· Galatasaray 72-76
· Barcelona 61-88
This is a game between two teams that have no future in the tournament. Olimpija L of course wants to qualify but they are not convincing. However, the losses were within the program but did not like their performance and therefore there is a concern since they can’t score more than 60p.
It continues with bad percentages at three points and had only 2/15 at Siena and lost very easily after achieving to score only 4 points in the first period (26-4!). Key to the game is the three pointers, they don’t have a bad roster, but has not found team chemistry. They are waiting for 5-6000 people. In the Adriatic League they won 77-63 at Helios.
* On the other hand Prokom is reasonably mediocre team this year and were crashed in Barcelona. In VTB League they defeated 92-60 away. They have major weaknesses on the perimeter, let go the American guard Brown who did not offer much.
* Weird game. Bad basketball teams both of them. Olimpija has the advantage but the odds of 1.35 to 1.40 are low. And 6 points are too much. With 149 points the under makes sense. So we prefer the under.
Most likely bets
Wins: Caja Laboral, CSKA, Siena, Olimpia L
Handicap: -20 CSKA, Prokom +6
Over/Under: Under Olympiakos 151, 148 Siena, CSKA 150, 149 Olimpija
** Strange and difficult day. With large handicaps and low wins. What to do? We are confident that CSKA will play the game seriously in Zagreb? Because if you are serious that is winning 30 points easily. What to do? I am afraid a little bit of Olimpija. Curious teams. Caja and Siena don’t even give us 1.50. But they will pass logically and is our bets.
I believe that CSKA would not go easy but we do not not open up much with 20 points away. The unders are interesting but there is something very powerful as a base.
Our predictions
Wins: Caja Laboral – Siena double
Handicap: CSKA AT -20
Under/Over: Under Olympiakos 151, Siena 148
***All even